2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 10:00 PM · Fifth Third Stadium

Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arkansas State

29.6

Kennesaw State

26.8

Kennesaw State win probability: 43%

Margin (Kennesaw State − Arkansas State): -2.8 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Arkansas State 21 – Kennesaw State 28 (margin error 9.8, total error 7.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.