2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 4:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Arkansas @ Memphis

Predicted scoreLean

Arkansas

32.2

Memphis

26.3

Memphis win probability: 36%

Margin (Memphis − Arkansas): -6.0 (80% range -28 to 14)

Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Arkansas 31 – Memphis 32 (margin error 7.0, total error 4.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.