2025 Week 4 · Sep 18, 2025, 11:30 PM · Jerry Richardson Stadium

Rice @ Charlotte

Predicted scoreToss-up

Rice

24.8

Charlotte

24.7

Charlotte win probability: 50%

Margin (Charlotte − Rice): -0.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Rice 28 – Charlotte 17 (margin error 10.9, total error 4.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.