2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 11:00 PM · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Arkansas @ Ole Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Arkansas

22.3

Ole Miss

31.5

Ole Miss win probability: 72%

Margin (Ole Miss − Arkansas): 9.2 (80% range -11 to 30)

Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Arkansas 35 – Ole Miss 41 (margin error 3.2, total error 22.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.