2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 11:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Western Michigan @ Illinois

Predicted scoreConfident

Western Michigan

17.1

Illinois

36.6

Illinois win probability: 89%

Margin (Illinois − Western Michigan): 19.4 (80% range 0 to 41)

Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Western Michigan 0 – Illinois 38 (margin error 18.6, total error 15.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.