2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 8:30 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
South Florida @ Miami
Predicted scoreConfident
South Florida
17.7
Miami
37.2
Miami win probability: 89%
Margin (Miami − South Florida): 19.5 (80% range 0 to 41)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: South Florida 12 – Miami 49 (margin error 17.5, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.