2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 1:00 AM · Arizona Stadium
Kansas State @ Arizona
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
26.8
Arizona
25.0
Arizona win probability: 45%
Margin (Arizona − Kansas State): -1.9 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Kansas State 17 – Arizona 23 (margin error 7.9, total error 11.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.