2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 9:00 PM · War Memorial Stadium (AR) (neutral site)

Arkansas State @ Arkansas

Predicted scoreConfident

Arkansas State

21.3

Arkansas

38.3

Arkansas win probability: 85%

Margin (Arkansas − Arkansas State): 17.0 (80% range -4 to 39)

Total: 59.7 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Arkansas State 14 – Arkansas 56 (margin error 25.0, total error 10.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.