2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM · Waldo Stadium
North Texas @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Texas
27.0
Western Michigan
28.9
Western Michigan win probability: 55%
Margin (Western Michigan − North Texas): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 56.0 (80% range 31 to 82)
Actual: North Texas 33 – Western Michigan 30 (margin error 4.9, total error 7.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.