2025 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025, 2:30 AM · Reser Stadium
California @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreToss-up
California
27.0
Oregon State
26.8
Oregon State win probability: 49%
Margin (Oregon State − California): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: California 34 – Oregon State 15 (margin error 18.8, total error 4.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.