2025 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025, 1:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

Georgia Southern @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Georgia Southern

25.2

Fresno State

27.1

Fresno State win probability: 55%

Margin (Fresno State − Georgia Southern): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)

Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Georgia Southern 14 – Fresno State 42 (margin error 26.1, total error 3.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.