2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 11:30 PM · Maverik Stadium
UTEP @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLikely
UTEP
20.8
Utah State
33.5
Utah State win probability: 79%
Margin (Utah State − UTEP): 12.7 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UTEP 16 – Utah State 28 (margin error 0.7, total error 10.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.