2025 Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025, 10:30 PM · Memorial Stadium
Fresno State @ Kansas
Predicted scoreLikely
Fresno State
22.9
Kansas
33.3
Kansas win probability: 74%
Margin (Kansas − Fresno State): 10.4 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Fresno State 7 – Kansas 31 (margin error 13.6, total error 18.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.