2023 Postseason · Dec 24, 2023, 12:30 AM · Allegiant Stadium (neutral site)

Utah @ Northwestern

Predicted scoreConfident

Utah

35.4

Northwestern

16.4

Northwestern win probability: 11%

Margin (Northwestern − Utah): -19.1 (80% range -39 to 0)

Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Utah 7 – Northwestern 14 (margin error 26.1, total error 30.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.