Predicted scoreLean
Missouri
29.5
Arkansas
22.5
Arkansas win probability: 33%
Margin (Arkansas − Missouri): -7.0 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Missouri 48 – Arkansas 14 (margin error 27.0, total error 10.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.