2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 7:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

UTEP @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

UTEP

24.4

Middle Tennessee

30.1

Middle Tennessee win probability: 64%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − UTEP): 5.8 (80% range -14 to 26)

Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: UTEP 30 – Middle Tennessee 34 (margin error 1.8, total error 9.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.