2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM · Ryan Field
Purdue @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreToss-up
Purdue
27.0
Northwestern
28.3
Northwestern win probability: 53%
Margin (Northwestern − Purdue): 1.3 (80% range -20 to 22)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Purdue 15 – Northwestern 23 (margin error 6.7, total error 17.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.