2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 10:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium

Arkansas State @ South Alabama

Predicted scoreConfident

Arkansas State

19.6

South Alabama

39.5

South Alabama win probability: 89%

Margin (South Alabama − Arkansas State): 19.9 (80% range -1 to 42)

Total: 59.0 (80% range 35 to 84)

Actual: Arkansas State 14 – South Alabama 21 (margin error 12.9, total error 24.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.