2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:00 PM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Baylor @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreConfident

Baylor

17.2

Kansas State

36.0

Kansas State win probability: 88%

Margin (Kansas State − Baylor): 18.8 (80% range -1 to 39)

Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Baylor 25 – Kansas State 59 (margin error 15.2, total error 30.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.