2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 5:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Indiana @ Illinois

Predicted scoreToss-up

Indiana

24.6

Illinois

28.2

Illinois win probability: 59%

Margin (Illinois − Indiana): 3.6 (80% range -17 to 24)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Indiana 45 – Illinois 48 (margin error 0.6, total error 40.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.