2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 7:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

South Florida @ Memphis

Predicted scoreLikely

South Florida

23.4

Memphis

34.6

Memphis win probability: 75%

Margin (Memphis − South Florida): 11.2 (80% range -10 to 32)

Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: South Florida 50 – Memphis 59 (margin error 2.2, total error 51.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.