2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 7:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Louisiana @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreLikely

Louisiana

37.1

Arkansas State

23.6

Arkansas State win probability: 21%

Margin (Arkansas State − Louisiana): -13.5 (80% range -35 to 8)

Total: 60.7 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Louisiana 17 – Arkansas State 37 (margin error 33.5, total error 6.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.