2024 Postseason · Jan 11, 2025, 12:30 AM · AT&T Stadium (neutral site)

Ohio State @ Texas

Predicted scoreToss-up

Ohio State

28.5

Texas

26.2

Texas win probability: 45%

Margin (Texas − Ohio State): -2.3 (80% range -23 to 18)

Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Ohio State 28 – Texas 14 (margin error 11.7, total error 12.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.