2024 Postseason · Jan 4, 2025, 4:00 PM · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (neutral site)

Buffalo @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

Buffalo

21.0

Liberty

32.6

Liberty win probability: 76%

Margin (Liberty − Buffalo): 11.5 (80% range -9 to 32)

Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Buffalo 26 – Liberty 7 (margin error 30.5, total error 20.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.