2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 9:00 PM · Malone Stadium
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
Arkansas State
26.0
UL Monroe
31.5
UL Monroe win probability: 63%
Margin (UL Monroe − Arkansas State): 5.5 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 57.5 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Arkansas State 34 – UL Monroe 24 (margin error 15.5, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.