2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM · Jordan-Hare Stadium

Mississippi State @ Auburn

Predicted scoreLean

Mississippi State

21.0

Auburn

26.3

Auburn win probability: 64%

Margin (Auburn − Mississippi State): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)

Total: 47.3 (80% range 26 to 70)

Actual: Mississippi State 13 – Auburn 27 (margin error 8.7, total error 7.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.