2024 Postseason · Jan 1, 2025, 6:00 PM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site)

Texas @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreConfident

Texas

36.5

Arizona State

18.6

Arizona State win probability: 13%

Margin (Arizona State − Texas): -17.9 (80% range -39 to 3)

Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Texas 39 – Arizona State 31 (margin error 9.9, total error 14.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.