2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 4:00 PM · Razorback Stadium

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

Predicted scoreLean

Mississippi State

22.8

Arkansas

29.0

Arkansas win probability: 65%

Margin (Arkansas − Mississippi State): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Mississippi State 7 – Arkansas 3 (margin error 10.1, total error 41.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.