Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
20.8
Maryland
33.2
Maryland win probability: 78%
Margin (Maryland − Illinois): 12.4 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Illinois 27 – Maryland 24 (margin error 15.4, total error 2.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.