2023 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 AM · Maverik Stadium
Fresno State @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLikely
Fresno State
33.2
Utah State
22.9
Utah State win probability: 27%
Margin (Utah State − Fresno State): -10.2 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Fresno State 37 – Utah State 32 (margin error 5.2, total error 12.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.