2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 2:00 AM · Arizona Stadium
Washington @ Arizona
Predicted scoreLikely
Washington
35.5
Arizona
24.4
Arizona win probability: 25%
Margin (Arizona − Washington): -11.1 (80% range -32 to 10)
Total: 59.9 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Washington 31 – Arizona 24 (margin error 4.1, total error 4.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:11 PM | -11.1 | 59.9 | 25% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:41 PM | -11.1 | 59.9 | 25% |