Predicted scoreLikely
App State
31.3
UL Monroe
22.8
UL Monroe win probability: 30%
Margin (UL Monroe − App State): -8.6 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: App State 41 – UL Monroe 40 (margin error 7.6, total error 26.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:11 PM | -8.6 | 54.1 | 30% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:41 PM | -8.6 | 54.1 | 30% |