2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 12:00 AM · Lane Stadium
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Pittsburgh
24.9
Virginia Tech
24.0
Virginia Tech win probability: 48%
Margin (Virginia Tech − Pittsburgh): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Pittsburgh 21 – Virginia Tech 38 (margin error 17.9, total error 10.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:59 PM | -0.9 | 48.9 | 48% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:40 PM | -0.9 | 48.9 | 48% |