2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM · FirstBank Stadium
Missouri @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
Missouri
35.0
Vanderbilt
20.6
Vanderbilt win probability: 18%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Missouri): -14.4 (80% range -35 to 6)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Missouri 38 – Vanderbilt 21 (margin error 2.6, total error 3.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:09 PM | -14.4 | 55.6 | 18% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:37 PM | -14.4 | 55.6 | 18% |