2024 Postseason · Dec 28, 2024, 12:00 AM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (neutral site)

Texas Tech @ Arkansas

Predicted scoreToss-up

Texas Tech

27.1

Arkansas

23.4

Arkansas win probability: 41%

Margin (Arkansas − Texas Tech): -3.7 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Texas Tech 26 – Arkansas 39 (margin error 16.7, total error 14.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.