2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Arkansas State @ Massachusetts
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
31.1
Massachusetts
29.8
Massachusetts win probability: 47%
Margin (Massachusetts − Arkansas State): -1.3 (80% range -23 to 21)
Total: 60.8 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Arkansas State 52 – Massachusetts 28 (margin error 22.7, total error 19.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:08 PM | -1.3 | 60.8 | 47% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:36 PM | -1.3 | 60.8 | 47% |