Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
26.4
Purdue
26.9
Purdue win probability: 51%
Margin (Purdue − Illinois): 0.6 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 30 to 78)
Actual: Illinois 19 – Purdue 44 (margin error 24.4, total error 9.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:08 PM | 0.6 | 53.3 | 51% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:36 PM | 0.6 | 53.3 | 51% |