2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
South Florida @ Navy
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
24.7
Navy
23.6
Navy win probability: 47%
Margin (Navy − South Florida): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: South Florida 44 – Navy 30 (margin error 12.9, total error 25.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:06 PM | -1.1 | 48.3 | 47% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:34 PM | -1.1 | 48.3 | 47% |