Predicted scoreLikely
Indiana
20.9
Maryland
33.9
Maryland win probability: 79%
Margin (Maryland − Indiana): 13.0 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Indiana 17 – Maryland 44 (margin error 14.0, total error 6.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:06 PM | 13.0 | 54.8 | 79% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:34 PM | 13.0 | 54.8 | 79% |