Predicted scoreLikely
Kansas
24.4
Texas
39.6
Texas win probability: 81%
Margin (Texas − Kansas): 15.1 (80% range -7 to 37)
Total: 64.0 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: Kansas 14 – Texas 40 (margin error 10.9, total error 10.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 45 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:06 PM | 15.1 | 64.0 | 81% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:33 PM | 15.1 | 64.0 | 81% |