2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:00 PM · California Memorial Stadium
Arizona State @ California
Predicted scoreLean
Arizona State
21.1
California
29.3
California win probability: 69%
Margin (California − Arizona State): 8.1 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Arizona State 21 – California 24 (margin error 5.1, total error 5.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 28 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:05 PM | 8.1 | 50.4 | 69% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:32 PM | 8.1 | 50.4 | 69% |