2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 6:30 PM · Dix Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Kent State
Predicted scoreLean
Miami (OH)
29.0
Kent State
24.6
Kent State win probability: 39%
Margin (Kent State − Miami (OH)): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Miami (OH) 23 – Kent State 3 (margin error 15.5, total error 27.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:05 PM | -4.5 | 53.6 | 39% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:32 PM | -4.5 | 53.6 | 39% |