2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Utah State @ UConn
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah State
26.9
UConn
25.9
UConn win probability: 48%
Margin (UConn − Utah State): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Utah State 34 – UConn 33 (margin error 0.0, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:04 PM | -1.0 | 52.8 | 48% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:31 PM | -1.0 | 52.8 | 48% |