Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas A&M
28.5
Arkansas
26.1
Arkansas win probability: 44%
Margin (Arkansas − Texas A&M): -2.4 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Texas A&M 34 – Arkansas 22 (margin error 9.6, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:03 PM | -2.4 | 54.6 | 44% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:31 PM | -2.4 | 54.6 | 44% |