Predicted scoreLean
Buffalo
29.5
Akron
24.1
Akron win probability: 37%
Margin (Akron − Buffalo): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Buffalo 13 – Akron 10 (margin error 2.4, total error 30.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:02 PM | -5.4 | 53.5 | 37% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:30 PM | -5.4 | 53.5 | 37% |