2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM · Bridgeforth Stadium
South Alabama @ James Madison
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Alabama
27.7
James Madison
26.2
James Madison win probability: 47%
Margin (James Madison − South Alabama): -1.5 (80% range -22 to 19)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 30 to 79)
Actual: South Alabama 23 – James Madison 31 (margin error 9.5, total error 0.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:02 PM | -1.5 | 53.9 | 47% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:29 PM | -1.5 | 53.9 | 47% |