2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 2:15 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Cincinnati @ BYU
Predicted scoreToss-up
Cincinnati
25.8
BYU
28.8
BYU win probability: 57%
Margin (BYU − Cincinnati): 3.0 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Cincinnati 27 – BYU 35 (margin error 5.0, total error 7.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:01 PM | 3.0 | 54.6 | 57% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:29 PM | 3.0 | 54.6 | 57% |