2024 Postseason · Dec 27, 2024, 2:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium (neutral site)

Arkansas State @ Bowling Green

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arkansas State

25.9

Bowling Green

28.7

Bowling Green win probability: 57%

Margin (Bowling Green − Arkansas State): 2.9 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Arkansas State 38 – Bowling Green 31 (margin error 9.9, total error 14.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.