2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 1:00 AM · Reser Stadium
Utah @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah
22.1
Oregon State
23.9
Oregon State win probability: 55%
Margin (Oregon State − Utah): 1.8 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 46.0 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Utah 7 – Oregon State 21 (margin error 12.2, total error 18.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:01 PM | 1.8 | 46.0 | 55% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:29 PM | 1.8 | 46.0 | 55% |