2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP
Predicted scoreLean
Louisiana Tech
25.7
UTEP
29.8
UTEP win probability: 60%
Margin (UTEP − Louisiana Tech): 4.1 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Louisiana Tech 24 – UTEP 10 (margin error 18.1, total error 21.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:01 PM | 4.1 | 55.5 | 60% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:28 PM | 4.1 | 55.5 | 60% |